MeritValue

DARLING INGREDIENTS INC.

DARdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.91 and $67.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$4.74B1$6.53B2$6.79B3$5.72B3$6.14B3
Net income$650.9M4$737.7M5$647.7M6$278.9M6$62.8M6
Operating cash flow$704.4M7$813.7M8$899.3M9$839.3M9$1.06B9
Capital expenditure$274.1M10$391.3M11$555.5M12$332.5M12$380.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$430.3M7$422.4M8$343.8M9$506.8M9$679.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.9M13$127M14$126.5M15$76M16$88.7M16
Diluted shares167.1M164.1M162.4M161.4M160.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $295.77 of net worth that earned you $3.92 and generated $42.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 22%FY22 23%FY23 20%FY24 6%FY26 1%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.91 and $67.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.3%
  • fcfBase$506.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.3%
  • fcfBase$506.8M
Earnings Power Value
$41.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$647.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.77
Base6.3%$59.8
Bull11.3%$73.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000916540-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916540-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916540-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000916540-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916540-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916540-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000916540-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916540-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916540-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000916540-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916540-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916540-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000916540-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916540-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916540-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000916540-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)