MeritValue

DANA Inc

DANdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DANA Inc earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.95 and $60.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.95B1$10.2B2$7.61B3$7.73B3$7.5B3
Net income$197M4−$242M5$38M6−$57M6$85M6
Operating cash flow$158M7$649M8$476M9$450M9$512M9
Capital expenditure$369M10$440M11$427M12$312M12$214M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$211M7$209M8$49M9$138M9$298M9
Total debt$23M13$52M14$22M15$8M16$615M16
Cash & equivalents$268M17$425M18$529M18$494M18$469M18
Diluted shares146.2M143.6M144.4M145.2M133.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$46

10 shares is a claim on $62.83 of net worth that earned you $6.36 and generated $22.29 of cash last year, against $46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 7%FY23 -7%FY24 -15%FY25 12%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 2574% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.95 and $60.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$138M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$138M
Earnings Power Value
$2.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$38M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.66
Base20.0%$32.56
Bull20.0%$32.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004751 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004751 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003931 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004751 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004554 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)