MeritValue

DELTA AIR LINES, INC.

DALdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DELTA AIR LINES, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.18 and $54.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.9B1$50.6B2$58B3$61.6B3$63.4B3
Net income$280M4$1.32B5$4.61B6$3.46B6$5.01B6
Operating cash flow$3.26B7$6.36B8$6.46B9$8.03B9$8.34B9
Capital expenditure$3.25B10$6.37B11$5.32B12$5.14B12$4.5B12
Free cash flow (derived)$17M7−$3M8$1.14B9$2.89B9$3.84B9
Total debt$50.2B13$42.8B14$37.2B15$30.7B16$26.6B16
Cash & equivalents$7.93B17$3.27B18$2.74B19$3.07B19$4.31B19
Diluted shares641.0M641.0M643.0M648.0M654.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$318.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$406.97

10 shares is a claim on $318.85 of net worth that earned you $76.53 and generated $58.76 of cash last year, against $406.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 1%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 12%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.18 and $54.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.89B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.89B
Earnings Power Value
$54.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.46B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.92
Base5.0%$44.18
Bull10.0%$62.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027904-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027904-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027904-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)