MeritValue

Caesars Entertainment, Inc.

CZRdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Caesars Entertainment, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $32.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.57B1$10.8B2$11.5B3$11.2B3$11.5B3
Net income−$1.02B4−$899M5$786M6−$278M6−$502M6
Operating cash flow$1.2B7$993M8$1.81B9$1.08B9$1.3B9
Capital expenditure$520M10$952M11$1.26B12$1.3B12$805M12
Free cash flow (derived)$679M7$41M8$545M9−$221M9$497M9
Total debt$28.1B13$25.9B14$24.7B15$24.4B16$23.7B16
Cash & equivalents$1.07B17$1.04B18$1.01B19$866M19$887M19
Diluted shares211.0M214.0M216.0M215.0M208.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$168.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,138.89

10 shares is a claim on $168.46 of net worth that earned you −$24.13 and generated $23.89 of cash last year, against $1,138.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$497M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$497M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-23-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590895-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590895-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590895-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)