MeritValue

CITIZENS & NORTHERN CORP

CZNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CITIZENS & NORTHERN CORP earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.87 and $28.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$84.5M1$92.6M2$113.5M3$128.1M3$139.2M3
Net income$30.6M4$26.6M5$24.1M6$26M6$23.4M6
Operating cash flow$34.8M7$34.6M8$33.5M9$33M9$32M9
Capital expenditure$1.86M10$3.29M11$2.27M12$1.91M12$1.91M12
Free cash flow (derived)$33M7$31.3M8$31.3M9$31.1M9$30.1M9
Total debt$1.8M13$80.1M14$33.9M15$2.49M16$28.6M16
Cash & equivalents$104.9M17$55M18$56.9M19$126.2M20$46.1M20
Diluted shares15.8M15.5M15.2M15.3M15.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$214.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.94

10 shares is a claim on $214.24 of net worth that earned you $14.69 and generated $18.87 of cash last year, against $17.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 13%FY23 21%FY24 60%FY25 30%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 1487% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.87 and $28.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.1M
Earnings Power Value
$16.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$26M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.98
Base0.0%$28.98
Bull5.0%$35.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003990 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003990 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002408 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024613 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)