MeritValue

CITIZENS FINANCIAL SERVICES INC

CZFSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CITIZENS FINANCIAL SERVICES INC earns about 42% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.74 and $103.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.74M1$8.59M2$8.97M3$9.61M3$9.88M3
Net income$29.1M4$29.1M5$17.8M6$27.8M6$36.6M6
Operating cash flow$38.7M7$33.2M8$26.5M9$33.2M9$36.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.11M10$1.63M11$2.62M12$1.31M12$1.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$37.6M7$31.6M8$23.9M9$31.9M9$35.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$172.8M13$26.2M14$52.8M15$42.2M16$34.3M16
Diluted shares4.0M4.1M4.5M4.8M4.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$704.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $704.26 of net worth that earned you $76.19 and generated $73.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
42% avg · 5y
FY21 88%FY22 22%FY23 25%FY24 38%FY25 38%

It earned about 42% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.74 and $103.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$96.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$31.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$103.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$31.9M
Earnings Power Value
$62.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$109.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $103.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$102
Base0.3%$103.16
Bull5.3%$126.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011948 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007274 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009103 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007274 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009103 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007274 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009103 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011948 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007274 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009103 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010821 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011948 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007274 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)