MeritValue

CYTOKINETICS INC

CYTKdata completeness 100%27 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CYTOKINETICS INC earns about -88% on equity, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$70.4M1$94.6M2$7.53M3$18.5M3$88M3
Net income−$215.3M4−$389M5−$526.2M6−$589.5M6−$785M6
Operating cash flow−$142.5M7−$299.5M8−$414.3M9−$395.9M9−$510M9
Capital expenditure$48.9M10$11.3M11$1.42M12$3.91M12$24.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$191.4M7−$310.9M8−$415.7M9−$399.8M9−$534.8M9
Total debt$47.4M13$714.3M14$707.7M15$724.3M16$287.6M16
Cash & equivalents$112.7M17$65.6M18$113M19$94.9M20$122.5M20
Diluted shares76,88689,82596,524111,979120,103

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$54,921.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$65,356.82
Free cash flow it threw off
−$44,529.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$23,943.2

10 shares is a claim on −$54,921.61 of net worth that earned you −$65,356.82 and generated −$44,529.78 of cash last year, against $23,943.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-88% avg · 5y
FY21 -88%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -88% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+56% shares · 5y

Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 507% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005515 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022256 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029206 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076495 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)