MeritValue

COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC

CYHdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4B1$12.2B2$12.5B3$12.6B3$12.5B3
Net income$230M4$46M5−$133M6−$516M6$509M6
Operating cash flow−$131M7$300M8$210M9$480M9$543M9
Capital expenditure$469M10$415M11$467M12$360M12$335M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$600M7−$115M8−$257M9$120M9$208M9
Total debt$24.2B13$23.2B14$23B15$22.9B16$20.8B16
Cash & equivalents$507M17$118M18$38M19$37M20$260M20
Diluted shares130.6M130.1M130.4M132.1M135.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$103.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,538.82

10 shares is a claim on −$103.25 of net worth that earned you $37.7 and generated $15.41 of cash last year, against $1,538.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 1%FY23 0%FY24 -1%FY25 4%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$120M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$120M
Earnings Power Value
$3.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$46M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059509 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)