CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD
CYDdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.91 and $19.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.18B1 | $3.36B2 | $2.31B3 | $2.54B4 | $2.67B5 |
| Net income | $84.8M6 | $43.1M7 | $31.4M8 | $40.2M9 | $45M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $218.7M11 | $79.8M12 | −$17.2M13 | $172.6M14 | $108.6M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $90.3M16 | $90.5M17 | $62M18 | $33.5M19 | $50.2M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $128.4M11 | −$10.7M12 | −$79.2M13 | $139.1M14 | $58.4M15 |
| Total debt | $946.5M21 | $1.07B22 | $852.3M23 | $848.3M24 | $930.5M25 |
| Cash & equivalents | $929.7M26 | $688.8M27 | $626.7M28 | $772.9M29 | $824.7M29 |
| Diluted shares | 40.9M | 40.9M | 40.9M | 40.9M | 37.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $340.5 of net worth that earned you $12 and generated $15.58 of cash last year, against $248 of debt.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.91 and $19.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$58.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$58.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$43.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.43 |
| Base | 0.0% | $19.43 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $24.82 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-128033 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-114040 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-117772 (Revenue)
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- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-128033 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-114040 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-117772 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-116234 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-058324 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-114040 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
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