MeritValue

CoreCivic, Inc.

CXWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CoreCivic, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.67 and $11.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.86B1$1.85B2$1.9B3$1.96B3$2.21B3
Net income−$51.9M4$122.3M4$67.6M5$68.9M5$116.5M5
Operating cash flow$263.2M6$153.6M7$231.9M8$269.2M8$194.6M8
Capital expenditure$81.5M9$83.4M10$67.7M11$70.4M11$141.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)$181.7M6$70.1M7$164.2M8$198.7M8$52.8M8
Total debt$1.53B12$1.25B13$1.1B14$985.1M15$1.22B15
Cash & equivalents$299.6M16$149.4M17$121.8M18$107.5M19$97.9M19
Diluted shares120.2M118.2M113.8M110.9M107.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$114.06

10 shares is a claim on $131.3 of net worth that earned you $10.89 and generated $4.93 of cash last year, against $114.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 7%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.67 and $11.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$164.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$164.2M
Earnings Power Value
$6.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$68.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.42
Base0.0%$11.42
Bull5.0%$16.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017235 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024745 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003390 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017235 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024745 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017235 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024745 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003390 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017235 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024745 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003390 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017235 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024745 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060669 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)