MeritValue

Crane NXT, Co.

CXTdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Crane NXT, Co. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.56 and $33.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.35B1$1.34B2$1.39B3$1.49B3$1.66B3
Net income$178M4$204.9M5$188.3M6$184.1M6$145.1M6
Operating cash flow$277M7$306M8$276.3M9$214.1M9$241.5M9
Capital expenditure$18.6M10$21.3M11$31.1M12$45.4M12$43.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$258.4M7$284.7M8$245.2M9$168.7M9$198.3M9
Total debt$1.68B13$1.39B13$644.9M14$750.6M15$1.14B15
Cash & equivalents$478.6M16$230.7M17$227.2M18$165.8M19$233.8M19
Diluted shares56.7M56.7M57.5M57.8M58.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$196.47

10 shares is a claim on $216.03 of net worth that earned you $25.02 and generated $34.19 of cash last year, against $196.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 13%FY23 14%FY24 11%FY25 7%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 32% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.56 and $33.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$198.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$198.3M
Earnings Power Value
$32.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$184.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.23
Base0.0%$33.23
Bull5.0%$45.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006375 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006375 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006375 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006375 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005873 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006375 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006754 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000025445-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)