MeritValue

Sprinklr, Inc.

CXMdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sprinklr, Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.92 and $17.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$492.4M1$618.2M2$732.4M3$796.4M3$857.2M3
Net income−$111.5M4−$55.7M5$51.4M6$121.6M6$22.9M6
Operating cash flow−$32.9M7$26.7M8$71.5M9$77.6M9$159.2M9
Capital expenditure$6.15M10$6.09M11$8.55M12$5.8M12$1.38M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$39.1M7$20.6M8$62.9M9$71.8M9$157.8M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$321.4M14$188.4M15$164M16$145.3M17$163M17
Diluted shares195.0M259.5M287.1M274.8M258.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $22.97 of net worth that earned you $0.89 and generated $6.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY22 -41%FY23 -10%FY24 10%FY25 10%FY26 8%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.92 and $17.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$71.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$71.8M
Earnings Power Value
$0.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$22.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.61
Base20.0%$9.7
Bull20.0%$9.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001569345-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001569345-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001569345-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001569345-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001569345-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001569345-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001569345-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001569345-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-22-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001569345-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001569345-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001569345-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001569345-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)