CEMEX SAB DE CV

CXdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CEMEX SAB DE CV earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.49 and $0.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$12.7B1$14.4B2$14.7B3$16.6B3$16.2B3
Net income−$1.47B4$753M5$858M6$182M6$939M6
Operating cash flow$1.59B7$1.84B8$1.37B9$2.22B9$1.89B9
Capital expenditure$538M10$776M11$755M12$865M12$1B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B7$1.07B8$613M9$1.36B9$894M9
Total debt$9.34B13$7.38B14$6.97B14$6.23B14$5.53B14
Cash & equivalents$950M15$613M16$495M16$624M16$864M16
Diluted shares14.71B14.71B14.71B14.49B14.51B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.81

10 shares is a claim on $8.39 of net worth that earned you $0.65 and generated $0.62 of cash last year, against $3.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY20 -6%FY21 5%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 5%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 41% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.49 and $0.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$894M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$894M
Earnings Power Value
$0.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$753M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.56
Base0.0%$0.56
Bull5.0%$0.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-128248 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-128248 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-128248 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-128248 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-119054 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-097693 (CashAndCashEquivalents)