MeritValue

CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP

CWTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$765.7M1$772.6M2$790.3M3$905.6M3$963.7M3
Net income$101.1M4$96M5$51.9M6$190.8M6$128.2M6
Operating cash flow$231.7M7$243.8M8$217.8M9$290.9M9$302.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.16B10$2.18B11$2.29B12$2.56B13$3.08B13
Cash & equivalents$78.4M14$62.1M15$39.6M16$50.1M17$51.8M17
Diluted shares51.6M54.4M57.0M58.6M59.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$283.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.5
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$516.24

10 shares is a claim on $283.73 of net worth that earned you $21.5 last year, against $516.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 12%FY25 8%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 43% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035201-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035201-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012444 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035201-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035201-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012444 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035201-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035201-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012444 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035201-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035201-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035201-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012444 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035201-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035201-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035201-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012444 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)