MeritValue

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC

CWSTdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.14 and $35.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$889.2M1$1.09B2$1.26B3$1.56B3$1.84B3
Net income$41.1M4$53.1M5$25.4M6$13.5M6$7.87M6
Operating cash flow$182.7M7$217.3M8$233.1M9$281.4M9$329.8M9
Capital expenditure$123.3M10$131M11$154.9M12$203.2M12$245.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$59.4M7$86.4M8$78.2M9$78.1M9$84.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$33.8M13$71.2M14$220.9M15$358.3M16$123.8M16
Diluted shares51.5M51.8M55.3M59.7M63.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$246.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $246.79 of net worth that earned you $1.24 and generated $13.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 7%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.14 and $35.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.6%
  • fcfBase$78.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.6%
  • fcfBase$78.2M
Earnings Power Value
$4.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.52
Base9.6%$28.39
Bull14.6%$34.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911177-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911177-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911177-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911177-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911177-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911177-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911177-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911177-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911177-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911177-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911177-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911177-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911177-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911177-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911177-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000911177-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)