MeritValue

Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.

CWKdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.74 and $5.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.39B1$10.1B2$9.49B3$9.45B3$10.3B3
Net income$250M4$196.4M5−$35.4M6$131.3M6$88.2M6
Operating cash flow$549.5M7$49.1M8$152.2M9$208M9$340.4M9
Capital expenditure$53.8M10$50.7M11$51M12$41M12$47.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$495.7M7−$1.6M8$101.2M9$167M9$293M9
Total debt$3.3B13$3.31B14$3.39B15$3.14B16$2.87B16
Cash & equivalents$770.7M17$644.5M18$767.7M19$793.3M20$784.2M20
Diluted shares226.5M228.0M226.9M232.8M234.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$122.26

10 shares is a claim on $83.31 of net worth that earned you $3.76 and generated $12.48 of cash last year, against $122.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 7%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.74 and $5.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$167M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$167M
Earnings Power Value
$5.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$131.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.28
Base5.0%$3.74
Bull10.0%$6.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628369-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628369-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628369-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628369-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)