MeritValue

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd

CWGLdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$68.9M1$74.2M2$72.4M3$73M4$65.1M4
Net income$3.17M5$1.08M6$3.12M7$851,0008$613,0008
Operating cash flow$18.7M9$7.49M10$5.95M11$2.68M12$1.42M12
Capital expenditure$4.51M13$7.57M14$9.05M15$5.37M16$3.92M16
Free cash flow (derived)$14.2M9−$80,00010−$3.1M11−$2.69M12−$2.5M12
Total debt$39.9M17$37.6M18$35.3M19$33.1M20$30.8M20
Cash & equivalents$32.7M21$25.7M22$22.8M23$21M24$20.6M24
Diluted shares22.8M22.3M21.3M20.8M20.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.3
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.97

10 shares is a claim on $90.7 of net worth that earned you $0.3 and generated −$1.21 of cash last year, against $14.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 0%FY25 0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.08M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562151-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562151-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562151-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018796 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)