CaliberCos Inc.

CWDdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CaliberCos Inc. earns about -1060% on equity, and has bought back 86% of its shares over 4 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$84M¹	$20.6M²	$20.9M³	$15.2M³
Net income	$2.02M⁴	−$12.7M⁵	−$19.8M⁶	−$21.8M⁶
Operating cash flow	−$7.43M⁷	−$18.7M⁸	$555,000⁹	−$12.1M⁹
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$7.66M¹⁰	$3.81M¹¹	$2.32M¹¹	$2.86M¹¹
Diluted shares	19.8M	20.1M	1.1M	2.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$4.71

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$77.02

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $4.71 of net worth that earned you −$77.02 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-1060% avg · 4y

FY22 —FY23 -484%FY24 —FY25 -1635%

It earned an average -1060% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−86% shares · 4y

Share count is down 86% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001627282-24-000039 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001627282-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001627282-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001627282-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001627282-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001627282-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001627282-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001627282-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001627282-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001627282-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001627282-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)