MeritValue

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.

CWCOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.87 and $118.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.11M1$25.5M2$109M3$114.6M4$127.2M4
Net income$875,5795$5.86M6$29.6M7$28.2M7$18.3M7
Operating cash flow$6.97M8$21.3M9$7.97M10$36.5M10$41.7M10
Capital expenditure$1.49M11$7.54M12$5.05M13$6.7M13$8.54M13
Free cash flow (derived)$5.48M8$13.8M9$2.92M10$29.8M10$33.2M10
Total debt$214,52714$331,08115$383,22416$196,63817$73,50317
Cash & equivalents$40.4M18$50.7M19$42.6M20$99.4M21$123.8M21
Diluted shares15.3M15.4M15.9M15.9M16.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.05

10 shares is a claim on $138.46 of net worth that earned you $11.45 and generated $20.72 of cash last year, against $0.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 9%FY23 22%FY24 17%FY25 20%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 66% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.87 and $118.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$118.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$29.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$68.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$29.8M
Earnings Power Value
$11.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $68.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.34
Base20.0%$68.46
Bull20.0%$68.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004095 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028587 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)