MeritValue

Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.

CWANdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 53% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$252M1$303.4M2$368.2M3$451.8M3$731.4M3
Net income−$8.21M4−$7.97M5−$21.6M6$424.4M6−$38.8M6
Operating cash flow$3.36M7$58M8$84.6M9$74.3M9$175.9M9
Capital expenditure$5.03M10$7.76M11$5.62M12$5.26M12$11.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.67M7$50.2M8$79M9$69.1M9$164.3M9
Total debt$54.3M13$51.6M14$46.1M15$43.3M16$1.65B17
Cash & equivalents$254.6M18$250.7M19$221.8M20$177.4M21$91.2M21
Diluted shares177.7M185.6M199.7M254.4M271.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$60.64

10 shares is a claim on $74.51 of net worth that earned you −$1.43 and generated $6.06 of cash last year, against $60.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 -2%FY23 -7%FY24 -3%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+53% shares · 5y

Share count is up 53% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 2929% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-003915 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005990 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005990 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007825 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001866368-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)