MeritValue

CURTISS WRIGHT CORP

CWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CURTISS WRIGHT CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $97.62 and $724.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.5B1$2.56B2$2.85B3$3.12B3$3.5B3
Net income$262.8M4$294.3M5$354.5M6$405M6$484.2M6
Operating cash flow$387.7M7$294.8M8$448.1M9$544.3M9$643.4M9
Capital expenditure$41.1M10$38.2M11$44.7M12$61M12$89.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$346.6M7$256.6M8$403.4M9$483.3M9$553.7M9
Total debt$2.1B13$2.51B14$2.1B15$2.1B16$1.92B16
Cash & equivalents$171M17$257M18$406.9M18$385M18$371.3M18
Diluted shares40.6M38.6M38.5M38.4M37.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$673.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$128.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$147.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$509.09

10 shares is a claim on $673.27 of net worth that earned you $128.68 and generated $147.14 of cash last year, against $509.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 12%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $97.62 and $724.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$724.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$483.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$377.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$483.3M
Earnings Power Value
$97.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$354.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$139.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $377.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$142.46
Base20.0%$377.69
Bull20.0%$377.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000026324-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000026324-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000026324-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000026324-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000026324-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000026324-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000026324-22-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007587 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)