CHEVRON CORP
CVXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileCHEVRON CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $98.61 and $121.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155.6B1 | $235.7B2 | $196.9B3 | $193.4B3 | $184.4B3 |
| Net income | $15.6B4 | $35.5B5 | $21.4B6 | $17.7B6 | $12.3B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $29.2B7 | $49.6B8 | $35.6B9 | $31.5B9 | $33.9B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.06B10 | $12B11 | $15.8B12 | $16.4B12 | $17.3B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $21.1B7 | $37.6B8 | $19.8B9 | $15B9 | $16.6B9 |
| Total debt | $38.9B13 | $10.7B14 | $7.25B15 | $26.5B16 | $18.9B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $5.64B17 | $17.7B17 | $8.18B17 | $8.26B18 | $7.29B18 |
| Diluted shares | 1.92B | 1.94B | 1.88B | 1.82B | 1.86B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,004.58 of net worth that earned you $66.27 and generated $89.4 of cash last year, against $101.73 of debt.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $98.61 and $121.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$16.6B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$16.6B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$17.7B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $121.48 |
| Base | 0.0% | $121.48 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $152.4 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093410-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093410-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093410-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093410-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-23-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093410-25-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093410-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000093410-26-000078 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)