MeritValue

CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC

CVUdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.53 and $13.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$103.4M1$83.3M2$86.5M3$81.1M4$69.3M4
Net income$6.82M5$9.18M6$17.2M7$3.3M8−$843,3618
Operating cash flow$2.8M9$944,32910$3.93M11$3.56M12−$5.2M12
Capital expenditure$29,18813$40,78914$140,45015$403,85416$65,03616
Free cash flow (derived)$2.77M9$903,54010$3.79M11$3.16M12−$5.27M12
Total debt$10.1M17$1.79M18$70,98119—$10M20
Cash & equivalents$6.31M21————
Diluted shares12.2M12.4M12.5M12.7M12.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.66
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.82

10 shares is a claim on $20.18 of net worth that earned you −$0.66 and generated −$4.12 of cash last year, against $7.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 82%FY23 28%FY24 19%FY25 -4%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.53 and $13.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16M
Earnings Power Value
$5.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.82M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.74
Base20.0%$7.26
Bull20.0%$7.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-004743 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004537 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-003528 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-007731 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-004743 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004537 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-003528 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-007731 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-004743 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004537 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-003528 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-007731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-004743 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004537 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-003528 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-007731 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-22-008926 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-004743 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004537 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K/A · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-007731 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-22-008926 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)