MeritValue

CVS HEALTH Corp

CVSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CVS HEALTH Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.62 and $94.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$292.1B1$322.5B2$357.8B3$372.8B3$402.1B3
Net income$8B4$4.31B5$8.34B6$4.61B6$1.77B6
Operating cash flow$18.3B7$16.2B8$13.4B9$9.11B9$10.6B9
Capital expenditure$2.52B10$2.73B11$3.03B12$2.78B12$2.83B12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.7B7$13.5B8$10.4B9$6.33B9$7.81B9
Total debt—$013$400M14$4.24B15$015
Cash & equivalents$9.41B16$12.9B17$8.2B18$8.59B18$8.45B18
Diluted shares1.33B1.32B1.29B1.26B1.27B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$591.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $591.77 of net worth that earned you $13.91 and generated $61.42 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 10%FY23 15%FY24 6%FY25 3%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.62 and $94.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$87.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.81B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$94.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.81B
Earnings Power Value
$37.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.61B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $94.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$94.41
Base0.0%$94.41
Bull5.0%$115.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064803-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064803-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064803-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)