MeritValue

CARVANA CO.

CVNAdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

CARVANA CO. earns about 50% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 171% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.7 and $36.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.8B1$13.6B2$10.8B3$13.7B3$20.3B3
Net income−$135M4−$1.59B5$450M6$210M6$1.41B6
Operating cash flow−$2.59B7−$1.32B8$803M9$918M9$1.04B9
Capital expenditure$557M10$512M11$87M12$91M12$147M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.15B7−$1.84B8$716M9$827M9$889M9
Total debt$8.1B13$14.7B14$11.4B15$10.9B16$9.96B16
Cash & equivalents$403M17$434M18$530M19$1.72B19$2.33B19
Diluted shares82.8M100.8M200.6M132.2M224.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$153.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$444.05

10 shares is a claim on $153.43 of net worth that earned you $62.73 and generated $39.64 of cash last year, against $444.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
50% avg · 5y
FY21 -44%FY22 —FY23 185%FY24 17%FY25 41%

It earned about 50% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+171% shares · 5y

Share count is up 171% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.7 and $36.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$36.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$827M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$827M
Earnings Power Value
$9.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$210M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.66
Base5.0%$31.41
Bull10.0%$46.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-23-000052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690820-24-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690820-25-000074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001690820-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)