MeritValue

CEL SCI CORP

CVMdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CEL SCI CORP earns about -158% on equity, and has bought back 90% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$36.4M1−$36.7M2−$32.4M3−$26.9M4−$25.4M4
Operating cash flow−$18.8M5−$18.2M6−$22.8M7−$18.8M8−$17.1M8
Capital expenditure$9.02M9$637,89210$361,89211$94,87512$38,10912
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.8M5−$18.9M6−$23.2M7−$18.9M8−$17.2M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$36.1M13$22.7M13$4.15M14$4.74M14$11M14
Diluted shares40.7M43.1M44.5M1.8M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$62.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$42.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $39.34 of net worth that earned you −$62.65 and generated −$42.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-158% avg · 5y
FY21 -64%FY22 -114%FY23 -245%FY24 -209%FY25 -159%

It earned an average -158% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−90% shares · 5y

Share count is down 90% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001654954-22-016959 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001654954-23-015877 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-000288 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-014303 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001654954-22-016959 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001654954-23-015877 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-000288 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-014303 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001654954-22-016959 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001654954-23-015877 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-000288 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-014303 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001654954-22-016959 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001654954-25-014303 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)