MeritValue

COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC

CVLTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC earns about 204% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.4 and $120.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$769.6M1$784.6M2$839.2M3$995.6M3$1.18B3
Net income$33.6M4−$35.8M5$168.9M6$76.1M6$70.7M6
Operating cash flow$177.2M7$170.3M8$203.8M9$207.4M9$244.7M9
Capital expenditure$3.91M10$3.24M11$4.09M12$3.76M12$7.53M12
Free cash flow (derived)$173.3M7$167M8$199.7M9$203.6M9$237.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$267.5M13$287.8M14$312.8M15$302.1M16$900M16
Diluted shares47.2M44.7M45.1M45.2M44.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.11
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.68 of net worth that earned you $15.82 and generated $53.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
204% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY23 -19%FY24 61%FY25 23%FY26 943%

It earned about 204% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.4 and $120.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$120.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$203.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$203.6M
Earnings Power Value
$16.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$85.31
Base6.8%$107.58
Bull11.8%$127.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001169561-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001169561-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001169561-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001169561-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001169561-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001169561-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001169561-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001169561-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001169561-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001169561-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001169561-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001169561-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001169561-23-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001169561-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001169561-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001169561-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)