MeritValue

COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC.

CVLGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.05B1$1.22B2$1.1B3$1.13B3$1.16B3
Net income$60.7M4$108.7M5$55.2M6$35.9M6$7.24M6
Operating cash flow$73.2M7$159.2M8$84.8M9$122.9M9$113.6M9
Capital expenditure$35.3M10$100.5M11$217.6M12$153M12$147.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$37.9M7$58.8M8−$132.8M9−$30.1M9−$33.9M9
Total debt$26.1M13$109.3M14$244.5M15$251.3M16$298.1M16
Cash & equivalents$8.41M17$68.7M18$2.29M19$35.6M20$4.95M20
Diluted shares17.0M31.0M27.7M27.7M26.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$150.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$110.76

10 shares is a claim on $150.13 of net worth that earned you $2.69 and generated −$12.61 of cash last year, against $110.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 26%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 2%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1043% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$21.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$55.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004926 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005880 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005696 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)