MeritValue

CVR ENERGY INC

CVIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CVR ENERGY INC earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.78 and $48.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.24B1$10.9B2$9.25B3$7.61B3$7.16B3
Net income$25M4$463M5$769M6$7M6$27M6
Operating cash flow$396M7$967M8$948M9$404M9$144M9
Capital expenditure$224M10$191M11$205M12$179M12$185M12
Free cash flow (derived)$172M7$776M8$743M9$225M9−$41M9
Total debt—$1.5B13$2.1B14$1.9B15$1.7B15
Cash & equivalents$510M16$510M17$581M17$987M17$511M17
Diluted shares100.5M100.5M100.5M100.5M100.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$72.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$169.15

10 shares is a claim on $72.64 of net worth that earned you $2.69 and generated −$4.08 of cash last year, against $169.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -119%FY22 38%FY23 35%FY24 1%FY25 4%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.78 and $48.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$225M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$225M
Earnings Power Value
$2.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.16
Base9.4%$35.9
Bull14.4%$46.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376139-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376139-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376139-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376139-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376139-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376139-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376139-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)