MeritValue

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.

CVGIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.98 and $1.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$971.6M1$782.6M2$835.5M3$723.4M3$649M3
Net income$23.7M4−$22M5$49.4M6−$27.9M6−$22.8M6
Operating cash flow−$29.8M7$68.9M8$38.3M9−$33.5M9$44.6M9
Capital expenditure$17.7M10$19.7M11$19.7M12$18.5M12$10.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$47.5M7$49.2M8$18.6M9−$52M9$34M9
Total debt$389.9M13$304.9M14$283M15$279.4M16$212.3M16
Cash & equivalents$35M17$31.8M17$37.8M17——
Diluted shares32.8M32.3M33.6M33.4M33.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$62.73

10 shares is a claim on $39.41 of net worth that earned you −$6.73 and generated $10.05 of cash last year, against $62.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 2%FY23 9%FY24 -2%FY25 -4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.98 and $1.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.57
Base0.0%$1.57
Bull5.0%$3.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012913 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016520 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012913 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016520 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012913 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016520 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012913 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016520 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006568 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012913 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016520 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011213 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)