MeritValue

Civeo Corp

CVEOdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Civeo Corp earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.11 and $51.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$594.5M1$697.1M2$700.8M3$682.1M3$638.8M3
Net income$1.35M4$4M5$30.2M6−$17.1M6−$20.1M6
Operating cash flow$88.5M7$91.8M8$96.6M9$83.5M9$22.3M9
Capital expenditure$15.6M10$25.4M11$31.6M12$26.1M12$20.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73M7$66.4M8$64.9M9$57.4M9$2.15M9
Total debt$346.4M13$261.9M14$131.1M15$86.6M16$182.8M16
Cash & equivalents$6.28M17$7.95M18$3.32M19$5.2M20$14.4M20
Diluted shares14.2M14.0M15.0M14.3M12.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$137.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$144.58

10 shares is a claim on $137.9 of net worth that earned you −$15.87 and generated $1.7 of cash last year, against $144.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 2%FY23 9%FY24 -1%FY25 -1%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.11 and $51.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$46.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$57.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$57.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.5
Base0.0%$51.5
Bull5.0%$67.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-23-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590584-23-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590584-24-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590584-25-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001590584-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)