MeritValue

CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC.

CVCOdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $248.5 and $1,388.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.63B1$2.14B2$1.79B3$2.02B3$2.24B3
Net income$197.7M4$240.6M5$157.8M6$171M6$190.6M6
Operating cash flow$144.2M7$255.7M8$224.7M9$178.5M9$267.5M9
Capital expenditure$18.7M10$44.1M11$17.4M12$21.4M12$35.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$125.6M7$211.6M8$207.3M9$157.1M9$232.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$244.2M13$271.4M14$352.7M15$356.2M15$236.7M15
Diluted shares9.3M8.9M8.6M8.3M7.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,388.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$239.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$292.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1,388.34 of net worth that earned you $239.81 and generated $292.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY22 34%FY23 34%FY24 23%FY25 24%FY26 22%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $248.5 and $1,388.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,388.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$822.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
Earnings Power Value
$248.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$190.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$273.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $822.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$402.47
Base18.2%$822.24
Bull20.0%$880.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000278166-24-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000278166-25-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001628280-26-037782 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000278166-24-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000278166-25-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001628280-26-037782 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000278166-24-000059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000278166-25-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001628280-26-037782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000278166-24-000059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000278166-25-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001628280-26-037782 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000278166-24-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000278166-25-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001628280-26-037782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)