MeritValue

CVB FINANCIAL CORP

CVBFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CVB FINANCIAL CORP earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.07 and $48.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$420.6M1$514.7M2$606.3M3$630.1M3$593.3M3
Net income$212.5M4$235.4M5$221.4M6$200.7M6$209.3M6
Operating cash flow$195.2M7$273.7M8$295.6M9$249.8M9$221.4M9
Capital expenditure$4.68M10$5.36M11$4.52M12$5.14M12$4.07M12
Free cash flow (derived)$190.6M7$268.4M8$291.1M9$244.6M9$217.3M9
Total debt$2.3M13$995M13$995M14——
Cash & equivalents$1.73B15$203.5M16$281.3M17$204.7M18$376.4M18
Diluted shares135.4M140.0M138.5M138.6M137.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.86
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $167.47 of net worth that earned you $15.27 and generated $15.86 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 62%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 27%FY25 29%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 43161% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.07 and $48.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.7%
  • fcfBase$244.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.7%
  • fcfBase$244.6M
Earnings Power Value
$16.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$212.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.25
Base8.7%$39.73
Bull13.7%$48.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029985 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083221 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029985 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083221 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029985 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083221 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029985 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083221 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005167 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022216 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029985 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083221 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)