MeritValue

Curaleaf Holdings, Inc.

CURLFdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.35 and $0.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.2B1$1.28B2$1.35B3$1.33B4$1.27B4
Net income−$205.9M5−$370.1M6−$281.2M7−$215.4M8−$231.1M8
Operating cash flow−$58.3M9$46.4M10$75.3M11$163.6M12$137.7M12
Capital expenditure$172M13$134.6M14$65.4M15$92.4M16$63.4M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$230.2M9−$88.2M10$9.82M11$71.2M12$74.3M12
Total debt$1.36B17$1.25B18$1.18B19$1.14B20$1.1B20
Cash & equivalents$299.3M21$163.2M21$91.8M22$107.2M22$101.6M22
Diluted shares698.8M711.2M724.1M740.8M762.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.4

10 shares is a claim on $9.92 of net worth that earned you −$3.03 and generated $0.97 of cash last year, against $14.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -3%FY23 -3%FY24 -3%FY25 -1%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.35 and $0.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$71.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$71.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.03
Base5.0%$0.35
Bull10.0%$0.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001756770-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001756770-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001756770-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001756770-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001756770-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007893 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001756770-26-000019 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)