MeritValue

CuriosityStream Inc.

CURIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CuriosityStream Inc. earns about -45% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.83 and $3.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3M1$78M2$56.9M3$51.1M4$71.7M4
Net income−$37.6M5−$50.9M6−$48.9M7−$12.9M8−$6.43M8
Operating cash flow−$73.2M9−$39.5M10−$16.2M11$8.15M12$13.1M12
Capital expenditure$351,00013$130,00014$5,00015$016$102,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$73.6M9−$39.7M10−$16.2M11$8.15M12$13M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$15.2M17$40M18$37.7M19$7.83M20$18.3M20
Diluted shares51.8M52.8M53.0M54.5M57.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.25
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $7.19 of net worth that earned you −$1.11 and generated $2.25 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-45% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -51%FY23 -109%FY24 -20%FY25 -22%

It earned about -45% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.83 and $3.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$8.15M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$8.15M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.34
Base5.0%$2.83
Bull10.0%$3.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086553 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012902 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014738 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017346 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086553 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014738 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017346 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086553 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014738 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017346 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086553 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014738 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017346 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086553 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012902 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014738 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017346 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)