Cullman Bancorp, Inc. /MD/

CULLdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Cullman Bancorp, Inc. /MD/ earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.41 and $9.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$14.2M1$13.4M2$16.5M3$19.5M3
Net income$3.55M4$1.75M5$4.18M6$3.95M6
Operating cash flow$3.44M7$5.23M8$5.77M9$5.86M9
Capital expenditure$430,00010$1.31M11$1.74M12$3.63M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.01M7$3.92M8$4.03M9$2.23M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$3.14M13$2.21M13$36.6M14$13M14
Diluted shares6.7M7.0M7.0M7.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$141.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.11
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $141.71 of net worth that earned you $5.51 and generated $3.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 4y
FY20 11%FY21 3%FY22 8%FY23 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 4y

Share count is up 7% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.41 and $9.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.92M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.92M
Earnings Power Value
$5.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.75M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.62
Base0.0%$9.62
Bull5.0%$11.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004488 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009870 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035099 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004488 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004488 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004488 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004488 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035099 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)