MeritValue

Cue Biopharma, Inc.

CUEdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cue Biopharma, Inc. earns about -124% on equity, but has diluted owners by 203% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.9M1$1.25M2$5.49M3$9.29M4$27.5M4
Net income−$44.2M5−$53M6−$50.7M7−$40.7M8−$26.6M8
Operating cash flow−$38.8M9−$41.8M10−$40M11−$36.3M12−$21.7M12
Capital expenditure$913,03913$171,00014$015$66,00016$177,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$39.8M9−$42M10−$40M11−$36.4M12−$21.9M12
Total debt$017$18.1M18$12.2M19$37,00019—
Cash & equivalents$64.4M20$51.6M21$48.5M22$22.5M23$27.1M23
Diluted shares31.3M35.6M45.8M56.3M94.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.79 of net worth that earned you −$2.81 and generated −$2.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-124% avg · 5y
FY21 -67%FY22 -81%FY23 -137%FY24 -232%FY25 -101%

It earned an average -124% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+203% shares · 5y

Share count is up 203% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108287 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108287 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108287 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008927 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047677 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)