MeritValue

Corteva, Inc.

CTVAdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Corteva, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.64 and $36.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.7B1$17.5B2$17.2B3$16.9B3$17.4B3
Net income$1.76B4$1.15B5$735M6$907M6$1.09B6
Operating cash flow$2.73B7$872M8$1.77B9$2.15B9$3.41B9
Capital expenditure$573M10$605M11$595M12$597M12$591M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.15B7$267M8$1.17B9$1.55B9$2.82B9
Total debt$18M13$24M14$394M15$1.25B16$1.68B16
Cash & equivalents$4.46B17$3.19B18$2.64B19$3.11B20$4.52B20
Diluted shares741.6M724.5M711.9M696.0M681.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$354.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.6

10 shares is a claim on $354.33 of net worth that earned you $16.06 and generated $41.31 of cash last year, against $24.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 9211% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.64 and $36.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.55B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.55B
Earnings Power Value
$16.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.63
Base0.0%$36.63
Bull5.0%$44.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-23-000005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001755672-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001755672-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001755672-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001755672-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)