MeritValue

CTS CORP

CTSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CTS CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.71 and $50.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$512.9M1$586.9M2$550.4M3$514.8M3$541.3M3
Net income−$41.9M4$59.6M5$60.5M6$55.5M6$65.3M6
Operating cash flow$86.1M7$121.2M8$88.8M9$98.2M9$102.1M9
Capital expenditure$15.6M10$14.3M11$14.7M12$18.6M12$15.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$70.5M7$106.9M8$74.1M9$79.6M9$86.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$141.5M13$156.9M14$163.9M15$94.3M16$82.3M16
Diluted shares32.3M32.2M31.6M30.7M29.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$185.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $185.13 of net worth that earned you $21.91 and generated $28.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 18%FY23 17%FY24 13%FY25 14%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.71 and $50.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$79.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$79.6M
Earnings Power Value
$20.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$59.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.92
Base4.1%$48.42
Bull9.1%$59.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019292 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027956 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067039 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019292 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027956 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019292 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027956 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019292 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027956 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067039 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019292 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027956 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)