MeritValue

Citi Trends Inc

CTRNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Citi Trends Inc earns about 25% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$991.6M1$795M2$747.9M3$753.1M3$820M3
Net income$62.2M4$58.9M5−$12M6−$43.2M6$5.21M6
Operating cash flow$74.3M7$5.75M8−$9.58M9−$3.85M9$21M9
Capital expenditure$29.7M10$22.3M11$14.9M12$10.1M12$20.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$44.6M7−$16.5M8−$24.5M9−$14M9$624,0009
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$49.8M13$103.5M14$79.7M14$61.1M14$66.1M14
Diluted shares9.0M8.2M8.2M8.3M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $140.14 of net worth that earned you $6.27 and generated $0.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY22 94%FY23 94%FY24 -16%FY25 -57%FY26 10%

It earned an average 25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$6.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.21M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-005294 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004897 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-043813 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-005294 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004897 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-043813 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-005294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004897 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-043813 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-005294 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004897 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-043813 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-25-004897 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001104659-26-043813 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)