Centuri Holdings, Inc.
CTRIdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Centuri Holdings, Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 26% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.85 and $2.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.76B1 | $2.9B2 | $2.64B2 | $2.98B2 |
| Net income | −$168.1M3 | −$186.2M4 | −$6.72M4 | $22.4M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $94.6M5 | $167.5M6 | $158.2M6 | $78.1M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $129.6M7 | $106.7M8 | $99.3M8 | $86.3M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$35M5 | $60.8M6 | $58.9M6 | −$8.2M6 |
| Total debt | — | $1.15B9 | $873.9M10 | $737.6M10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $64M11 | $33.4M12 | $49M12 | $126.6M12 |
| Diluted shares | 71.7M | 71.7M | 83.3M | 90.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $96.68 of net worth that earned you $2.48 and generated −$0.91 of cash last year, against $81.69 of debt.
It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 26% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 36% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.85 and $2.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$58.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$58.9M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $2.55 |
| Base | 0.0% | $2.55 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $4.81 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001981599-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001981599-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001981599-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001981599-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001981599-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)