MeritValue

Custom Truck One Source, Inc.

CTOSdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$788.5M1$1.08B2$1.33B3$1.36B3$1.45B3
Net income−$181.5M4$38.9M5$50.7M6−$28.7M6−$31.1M6
Operating cash flow$138.9M7$46M8−$30.9M9$122M9$310.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.63B10$2.72B11$2.99B12$3.06B13$3.29B13
Cash & equivalents$35.9M14$14.4M15$10.3M16$3.81M17$6.27M17
Diluted shares241.4M247.7M245.7M237.0M227.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.37
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$144.98

10 shares is a claim on $35.65 of net worth that earned you −$1.37 last year, against $144.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 -1%FY25 -1%

It earned an average -0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709682-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709682-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709682-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709682-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709682-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709682-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709682-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709682-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709682-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709682-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709682-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709682-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001709682-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709682-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709682-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709682-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001709682-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)