MeritValue

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.

CTOdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 83% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.4M1$5.46M1$3.98M1$124.5M2$149.5M2
Net income$29.9M3$3.16M4$5.53M5−$1.97M5$10.1M5
Operating cash flow$27.6M6$56.1M7$46.3M8$59.9M8$64.6M8
Capital expenditure$256.9M9$385.2M9———
Free cash flow (derived)−$229.3M6−$329.1M7———
Total debt$278.3M10$445.6M11$495.4M12$519M13$616.3M13
Cash & equivalents$8.62M14$19.3M15$10.2M16$9.02M16$6.47M16
Diluted shares17.7M18.5M22.5M25.4M32.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$175.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.13
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$190.86

10 shares is a claim on $175.69 of net worth that earned you $3.13 last year, against $190.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 1%FY23 3%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+83% shares · 5y

Share count is up 83% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 121% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.53M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001534 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017560 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001534 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001229 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017560 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001534 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001229 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017560 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001933 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001933 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001534 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001229 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017560 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001534 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001229 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017560 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)