QWEST CORP

CTGGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

QWEST CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.2B and $16.4B a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.47B1$6.08B2$5.6B3$5.22B3$4.49B3
Net income−$831M4$1.49B4−$1.33B4
Operating cash flow$3.03B5$2.63B6$2.39B7$2.19B7$1.76B7
Capital expenditure$797M8$849M9$1.06B10$1.05B10$824M10
Free cash flow (derived)$2.24B5$1.78B6$1.33B7$1.15B7$938M7
Total debt$2.16B11
Cash & equivalents$2M12$8M13$10M14$26M14$39M14
Diluted shares11111

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$109.2B
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.3B
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.38B
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $109.2B of net worth that earned you −$13.3B and generated $9.38B of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 15%FY23 -1%FY24 13%FY25 -7%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.2B and $16.4B a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.2B
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.4B
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.4B
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.4B
Base0.0%$16.4B
Bull5.0%$20.4B

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-22-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)