QWEST CORP
CTGGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'
QWEST CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.2B and $16.4B a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.47B1 | $6.08B2 | $5.6B3 | $5.22B3 | $4.49B3 |
| Net income | — | — | −$831M4 | $1.49B4 | −$1.33B4 |
| Operating cash flow | $3.03B5 | $2.63B6 | $2.39B7 | $2.19B7 | $1.76B7 |
| Capital expenditure | $797M8 | $849M9 | $1.06B10 | $1.05B10 | $824M10 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.24B5 | $1.78B6 | $1.33B7 | $1.15B7 | $938M7 |
| Total debt | $2.16B11 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2M12 | $8M13 | $10M14 | $26M14 | $39M14 |
| Diluted shares | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $109.2B of net worth that earned you −$13.3B and generated $9.38B of cash last year.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.2B and $16.4B a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.15B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.15B
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $16.4B |
| Base | 0.0% | $16.4B |
| Bull | 5.0% | $20.4B |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-22-000004 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068622-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068622-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068622-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)