MeritValue

CINTAS CORP

CTASdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CINTAS CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 281% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.05 and $110.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.12B1$7.85B2$8.82B3$9.6B3$10.3B3
Net income$1.11B4$1.24B5$1.35B6$1.57B6$1.81B6
Operating cash flow$1.36B7$1.54B8$1.59B9$2.07B9$2.17B9
Capital expenditure$143.5M10$240.7M11$331.1M12$409.5M12$408.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.22B7$1.3B8$1.26B9$1.66B9$1.76B9
Total debt$4.18B13$5.28B14$4.97B15$4.5B16$4.85B16
Cash & equivalents$493.6M17$90.5M18$124.1M19$342M20$264M20
Diluted shares107.7M105.5M413.5M413.5M410.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$118.21

10 shares is a claim on $114.18 of net worth that earned you $44.17 and generated $42.82 of cash last year, against $118.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 15%FY23 16%FY24 19%FY25 20%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+281% shares · 5y

Share count is up 281% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.05 and $110.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$110.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.9%
  • fcfBase$1.66B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$80.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.9%
  • fcfBase$1.66B
Earnings Power Value
$34.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $80.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$46.6
Base10.9%$80.54
Bull15.9%$101.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-22-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000723254-22-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000723254-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000723254-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000723254-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)