MeritValue

EIDP, Inc.

CTA-PBdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EIDP, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.57 and $32.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016
Revenue$34.8B1$29B2$28.4B3$25.1B3$24.6B3
Net income$2.76B4$4.85B5$3.63B6$1.95B6$2.51B6
Operating cash flow$4.85B7$3.18B8$3.71B9$2.32B9$3.3B9
Capital expenditure$1.79B10$1.88B11$2.02B12$1.63B12$1.02B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.06B7$1.3B8$1.69B9$687M9$2.28B9
Total debt$24.7B13$26.5B14$22.7B15$9.91B16$8.92B16
Cash & equivalents$4.28B17$8.94B17$6.91B18$5.3B19$4.61B19
Diluted shares942.2M933.1M921.9M899.5M877.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$101.67

10 shares is a claim on $114 of net worth that earned you $28.65 and generated $26.01 of cash last year, against $101.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY12 9%FY13 8%FY14 12%FY15 15%FY16 20%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 64% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.57 and $32.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.69B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$22.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.69B
Earnings Power Value
$32.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $22.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.65
Base0.0%$22.65
Bull5.0%$29.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (SalesRevenueNet)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2013-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (SalesRevenueNet)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (SalesRevenueNet)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2013-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2013-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2013-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-14-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2013-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2015-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0000030554-15-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0000030554-16-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2015-12-31 · accession 0000030554-17-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)