CSX CORP
CSXdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on fileCSX CORP earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.53 and $21.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.5B1 | $14.9B2 | $14.7B3 | $14.5B3 | $14.1B3 |
| Net income | $3.78B4 | $4.11B5 | $3.67B6 | $3.47B6 | $2.89B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $5.1B7 | $5.53B8 | $5.51B9 | $5.25B9 | $4.61B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.79B10 | $2.11B11 | $2.26B12 | $2.53B12 | $2.9B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $3.31B7 | $3.41B8 | $3.26B9 | $2.72B9 | $1.71B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.24B13 | $1.96B13 | $1.35B14 | $933M14 | $670M14 |
| Diluted shares | 2.25B | 2.14B | 2.01B | 1.94B | 1.87B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $70.26 of net worth that earned you $15.42 and generated $9.14 of cash last year.
It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.53 and $21.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.72B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.72B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$3.67B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $21.09 |
| Base | 0.0% | $21.09 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $26.11 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277948-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277948-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277948-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277948-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277948-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277948-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277948-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277948-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277948-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277948-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277948-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277948-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277948-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277948-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)