MeritValue

CARRIAGE SERVICES INC

CSVdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CARRIAGE SERVICES INC earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.15 and $36.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$375.9M1$370.2M2$382.5M3$404.2M3$417.4M3
Net income$33.2M4$41.4M5$33.4M6$33M6$51.5M6
Operating cash flow$84.2M7$61M8$75.6M9$52M9$60.7M9
Capital expenditure$24.9M10$26.1M11$18M12$16.1M12$20.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$59.4M7$34.9M8$57.6M9$35.9M9$40.1M9
Total debt$4.5M13$3.99M14$6M15$5.47M16$6.19M16
Cash & equivalents$1.15M17$1.17M18$1.52M19$1.17M20$1.69M20
Diluted shares18.3M15.7M15.5M15.4M15.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$162.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.96

10 shares is a claim on $162.96 of net worth that earned you $32.95 and generated $25.63 of cash last year, against $3.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 43%FY23 34%FY24 15%FY25 20%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.15 and $36.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$40.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$40.1M
Earnings Power Value
$22.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.33
Base0.0%$36.33
Bull5.0%$45.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-23-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001016281-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001016281-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001016281-25-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001016281-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)