MeritValue

CONSTELLIUM SE

CSTMdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CONSTELLIUM SE earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.71 and $18.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.15B1$8.53B2$7.83B3$7.34B3$8.45B3
Net income$257M4$308M5$152M6$56M6$273M6
Operating cash flow$357M7$365M8$432M9$301M9$489M9
Capital expenditure$232M10$289M11$366M12$413M12$330M12
Free cash flow (derived)$125M7$76M8$66M9−$112M9$159M9
Total debt$2.13B13$2.06B13$1.91B14$39M15$39M15
Cash & equivalents$166M16$176M17$223M18$141M19$120M19
Diluted shares141.7M147.0M148.5M148.0M141.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.75

10 shares is a claim on $67.07 of net worth that earned you $19.23 and generated $11.2 of cash last year, against $2.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 10%FY23 9%FY24 19%FY25 39%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 98% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.71 and $18.76 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$66M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$66M
Earnings Power Value
$18.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$257M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.21
Base0.0%$7.21
Bull5.0%$8.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-24-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-24-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-24-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-24-000006 (Borrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563411-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001563411-26-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)