MeritValue

CSP INC /MA/

CSPIdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CSP INC /MA/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 120% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.78 and $26.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.2M1$54.4M2$64.6M3$55.2M4$58.7M4
Net income$699,0005$1.89M6$5.2M7−$326,0008−$91,0008
Operating cash flow$1.9M9$2.68M10$3.91M11$4.21M12$2.27M12
Capital expenditure$98,00013$234,00014$226,00015$196,00016$348,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$1.81M9$2.44M10$3.68M11$4.02M12$1.92M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20M17$24M18$25.2M19$30.6M20$27.4M20
Diluted shares4.2M4.3M8.9M9.0M9.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.92 of net worth that earned you −$0.1 and generated $2.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 13%FY23 23%FY24 -2%FY25 -8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+120% shares · 5y

Share count is up 120% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.78 and $26.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.68M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.68M
Earnings Power Value
$0.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$699,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.61
Base20.0%$15.86
Bull20.0%$15.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356037-22-000036 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356037-23-000045 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356037-24-000070 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356037-25-000065 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356037-22-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356037-23-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356037-24-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356037-25-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356037-22-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356037-23-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356037-24-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356037-25-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356037-22-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356037-23-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356037-24-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356037-25-000065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356037-22-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356037-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356037-24-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356037-25-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)